This is the first in an occasional series about the future of the U.S. drone industry. This column examines the commercial potential of drones and some of the marketplace challenges facing the industry. Future columns will take an in-depth look at the industry’s technological, infrastructure and regulatory challenges.
Drones, a.k.a. “unmanned aircraft systems (UAS),” tend to be commonly misunderstood. Many people view them as playthings of the rich, a leftover gag from the old cartoon series The Jetsons or a sinister surveillance weapon used by a Bond villain.
None of these myths, however, does justice to a technology that is – quite literally – just beginning to take off. With their onboard computer-controlled cameras and their capacity to go places that people and other machines cannot, drones hold enormous promise to sharpen law enforcement, crack down on terrorism, help farmers monitor crops, assist insurance agents in assessing damaged assets, and, all in all, buoy the retail, transportation and entertainment industries, among others. If the Internet can deliver information, then drones can deliver almost everything else.
Drones may end up being one of the most productive and lucrative uses of autonomous technology and robotics, argues Matt Scassero, director of the University of Maryland’s UAS Test Site.
“Think about it,” Scassero says. “In barely a century, the world has gone from inventing manned flight to pioneering unmanned flight. It’s breathtaking.”
As Microsoft founder and technologist Bill Gates puts it, “Drones overall will be more impactful than I think people recognize, in positive ways to help society.” Microsoft is among the tech companies making a concerted push on UAS.
A December 2017 McKinsey & Company study echoes Gates’ view, documenting the dramatic commercial growth of the U.S. drone industry, from a mere $40 million in 2012 to well north of a billion dollars in 2017. Some 300 companies – including such aviation and aerospace behemoths as General Electric, Lockheed Martin and Northrop Grumman – are making substantial investments of time and resources in drones, points out Mark A. Ryan, the founder and CEO of Ryan Media Lab, Inc.
By 2026, McKinsey estimates that “commercial drones – both corporate and consumer applications – will have an annual impact of $31 billion to $46 billion on the country’s Gross Domestic Product.” As Ryan notes, “UAS may be a disruptive industry in that it displaces less efficient players. But it also has the potential to be a constructive industry, because drones can create tens of thousands of new jobs and achieve much societal good.”
To be sure, the UAS market, like any developing market, is experiencing growing pains. Yes, investment is soaring, but the industry’s most visible application – so-called “air taxis” – is still in its nascent form, hamstrung by untested technology and infrastructure, plus thorny regulatory hurdles at the local, state and federal levels.
But Anne Swanson of Wilkinson Barker & Knauer, the chair of the D.C. Capital Chapter of the Association of Unmanned Vehicles Systems International, maintains that the hurdles in terms of drones can be overcome. “The mindset of the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) has come a long way in the last couple of years,” Swanson says.
Since 2016, she notes, the FAA has taken steps to strengthen UAS research, grant waivers for expanded commercial operations and improve the safety of the national airspace for both manned and unmanned users. The FAA also created the Drone Advisory Committee (DAC) to ensure that prominent stakeholders from aviation, government and academia all help fashion the UAS rules for safety and security on which the industry’s future hinges.
“Much has been accomplished, but much more needs to be done – through both congressional action and UAS rulemaking,” Swanson says.
In early May, federal Transportation Secretary Elaine Chao, whose Cabinet department oversees the FAA, announced the winners of an unprecedented fast-track UAS pilot program, which Ryan describes as “a major boost for rapid commercial testing and clearance of drones over the next few years.” Ten different teams of entrepreneurs will now have an opportunity to expand drone operations under the supervision of state and local authorities working in concert with the FAA and DOT.
The future for drones is promising, all three experts say. It just might take us a while to get there. Drone technology may not be readily or widely available for a few more years. But it’s coming – and when it gets here it will utterly transform society.
“That gives all industry stakeholders a large impetus to identify roadblocks and realistically consider potential applications now.” That’s not George Jetson talking. It’s McKinsey & Company.
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Richard Levick (@richardlevick) is chairman and CEO of LEVICK, a global communications and public affairs agency specializing in risk, crisis, and reputation management. He is a frequent television, radio, online, and print commentator.
