Policymakers calling for government intervention to protect low-skilled workers from a robot revolution might be watching too much Netflix. Films like “Ex Machina” and “I, Robot” provide dire warnings about out-of-control technology causing the end of humanity. But centuries of history tell a different story.
Humans not only adapt to technology, they thrive. Just when their demise seems certain, they change the rules in a novel way and stay relevant.
The Luddites doubted the pattern in 1811 and started torching textile machinery. More recently, Microsoft founder Bill Gates issued his own call to action — a tax on job-stealing robots.
These remedies are unnecessary. A new working paper helps explain why. The research focuses on machine learning and artificial intelligence at patent offices, where teams must evaluate prior innovation to determine if new applications qualify for protection.
Triangulating the insights from this study with lessons from history, there are at least three universal rules that apply anytime humans interact with technology.
Interfaces will evolve to boost access for low-skilled workers
First, as technological interfaces improve, more people come in from the fringes of the economy.
Early room-sized computers needed scientists in white lab coats just to turn on the machines and feed paper punch cards into the right slots. Plumbers, auto mechanics and factory workers didn’t get anywhere near the secured laboratories.
The disclaimer from old television shows could have applied: “Don’t try this at home.”
Computer users look much different today. Even children routinely do things that required Fortran fluency in the past. It’s not that unskilled workers have gotten so much smarter. It’s that user interfaces have gotten so much simpler, shifting power to the masses.
WYSIWYG “what you see is what you get” editors, popularized by Apple, broke the doors to computer usage wide open. Suddenly, even novices could write word documents, store recipes, play solitaire and manage family checkbooks.
The options have multiplied since then. People today can edit video, translate text into dozens of languages and even run background checks on potential dates — all while standing in line at the grocery store. IBM engineers could do none of that in the 1950s.
The economy will grow as humans and machines team up
Second, machines don’t really replace humans or make them obsolete. The opposite is actually true. Machines complement humans and make them more productive, more valuable and ultimately more secure.
We see this with patent applications. Machines working alone sometimes miss prior innovation that might disqualify an application. That’s where human judgment comes in. But humans are not as efficient as machines in processing data.
As noted in the 2018 bestseller, Prediction Machines, the best results come when both sides work together, combining the prediction power of artificial intelligence with the creative and critical genius of humans.
Consider the lessons from banking and retail. Tellers panicked when ATMs emerged in the 1970s. Nasdaq traders resisted when digital technology threatened manual phone orders in the 1980s. And cashiers complained when self-checkout lanes appeared at grocery and department stores in the 1990s.
People raised concerns each step of the way about technological unemployment. But something else happened instead.
The economy grew. The World Bank estimates that more than half of humanity now has access to digital currency, which has helped billions of people lift themselves out of poverty.
If society tried going back to pre-automation days, global markets would collapse overnight. The United States alone would need the bulk of its labor force just to keep pace with daily financial transactions that have climbed to $14 trillion in U.S. currency.
That would be a lot of zeros to count manually, even if workers had their old battery-powered calculators with blinking orange-red numbers.
Clearly, current levels of productivity would not be possible without mobile money and electronic payment options. Economic growth depends on technology. But at the same time, it depends on people. They need each other.
John Henry had it wrong when he challenged a steam-powered rock drilling machine to a contest. When people step back and let machines do what they do best, people free themselves to do what they do best.
For high-skilled workers, this might mean writing the code that sets the automation in motion. For low-skilled workers, it might mean interacting with technology in specialized ways that don’t require advanced degrees. Expertise at all educational levels helps grow the economy.
Humans will continue to put their minds to work
Finally, people will continue to innovate and create no matter what happens with technology. This is a distinctive human characteristic that creates value for all.
When one opportunity closes, humans simply channel their energy elsewhere. This works to their advantage with artificial intelligence.
Across industrial and digital revolutions, as machines got smarter, the first jobs that disappeared involved tasks that were either dangerous or mundane. Coal miners no longer need to breathe toxic fumes. Factory workers no longer need to stare at conveyor belts. Even children benefit. Instead of sweeping chimneys, they can go to school.
Technology gives humans time — the most precious commodity — to focus on higher-order tasks like relationship management, judgment and evaluation.
When robots act like robots, humans have increased opportunities to act like humans.
